ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170336 
SPC MCD 170336 
NCZ000-170500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 170336Z - 170500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
THEY MOVE SEWD INTO NERN NC THROUGH 05Z. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED
DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OVER SERN VA IS MOVING SEWD AT
35-40 KT. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE OVER NERN NC REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE SFC LAYER HAS
STABILIZED...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ONLY A WEAK
NEAR-SFC INVERSION SUGGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG SWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN 25-40 KT WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND UP TO
40 KT SPEED OF MOTION OF THE LINE SUGGEST WINDS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36477780 36517686 36527626 36447585 35897584 36017743
            36477780 

NNNN