ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170121 
SPC MCD 170121 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN VA INTO NWRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 170121Z - 170215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS OVER ECNTRL VA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE MOST
ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT...AND THESE ARE MOVING INTO WW 262. STORMS
CROSSING INTO WRN MD SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 02Z AS THEY MOVE
INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME. STORMS MOVING INTO SWRN VA MAY CONTINUE
TO POSE SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL FOR 1-2 HOURS BEYOND
02Z...AND WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO RNK CWA IF
NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...00Z RAOB FROM RNK INDICATES A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER ALONG WITH
40-50 KT WNWLY WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT STORMS CROSSING INTO THIS REGIME MAY BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WHICH COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY 03-04Z.
FARTHER NORTH...THE STORMS CROSSING INTO MD FROM NERN VA MAY REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER INTO MD AND DEEPER INTO
A MORE STABLE REGIME. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH ECNTRL VA SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED IN WW
262 NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 06/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON   37348140 37628036 38107811 39057739 39127636 38157664
            36957916 36698040 36738145 37178194 37348140 

NNNN