ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162254 
SPC MCD 162254 
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV THROUGH WRN AND NRN VA...MD AND EXTREME SERN
PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 162254Z - 170030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
MAINLY FROM ERN WV THROUGH WRN AND NRN VA WITH THREAT SOMEWHAT MORE
MARGINAL IN SERN PA AND WITH ERN EXTENT INTO MD. A TORNADO OR TWO
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS OVER NRN VA.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN WV IS
MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. OTHER MORE DISCRETE CELLS REMAIN OVER
NRN VA. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH
OF VA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG WITH 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. A ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT
SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH WRN AND NRN/CNTRL VA NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ON VIS IMAGERY
MOVING WWD THROUGH NRN VA. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SELY EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHERE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
DISCRETE STORMS INTERACTING WITH AND CROSSING INTO THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN SRN PA WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE STABLE...RESULTING IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF
STORMS.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39617851 40087707 39637607 38157648 37647953 37438080
            37688167 37998170 38977949 39617851 

NNNN