ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162020 
SPC MCD 162020 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WV...SRN PA...MD...NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 162020Z - 162115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 261. A LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY A PAIR OF DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS FAR ERN WV AND NRN VA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH SEVERAL MERGERS
RESULTING IN A GRADUALLY ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS OF WV AND SRN PA. MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUSTAINING STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SWRN PA INTO NRN
MD/VA...WHERE STRONG HEATING AMIDST RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.
STRONG TO DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ALSO OF NOTE...A COUPLE OF DISCRETE TSTMS OVER FAR ERN WV MOVING
TOWARDS NRN VA APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED ALONG/NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE AN INCREASED SHORT-TERM LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 06/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38988264 40088142 40578059 40507958 40237853 39877782
            39557676 38477631 38127620 38137670 38097779 37607887
            38058063 38988264 

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