ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151924 
SPC MCD 151924 
TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX INTO THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151924Z - 152200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE RISK POSSIBLY EVOLVING.  WW
IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CU/CB DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX...WHERE A
HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
OBVIOUSLY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 
STILL...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL SSWLYS AT MID LEVELS MAY
ALLOW A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE...AND WITH THE DEEP MIXED
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF EVAPORATIVELY AUGMENTED DOWNDRAFTS...AN ISOLATED
WIND RISK MAY EVOLVE.

WITH TIME...CAM RUNS SUGGEST SOME CLUMPING/CLUSTERING OF STORMS AS
THEY SPREAD EWD TOWARD A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE S
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGION.  THOUGH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH SWD
AND EWD EXTENT...A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL /IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS/ MAY ALSO EVOLVE.  OVERALL
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SPARSE...PRECLUDING ATTM ANY OBVIOUS NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30650494 31220432 32360444 33340468 33880464 34260362
            34510254 34210206 32750128 31080132 29850160 28900317
            29480456 30650494 

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