ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151740 
SPC MCD 151740 
NCZ000-SCZ000-151915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151740Z - 151915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN DEEPENING CU FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES 1.7-2.1 INCHES. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS MAY BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY A WEAK MCV MOVING EWD OUT
OF SERN TN AND NRN GA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS POSSIBLE GIVEN 15-20 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RICH
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD APPROACH SVR LIMITS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERALLY POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34727668 34277747 33267886 32937941 32947994 33268048
            33988175 34638240 35038255 35698214 36168162 36498079
            36117889 35257687 34727668 

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