ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150018 
SPC MCD 150018 
ILZ000-150215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 150018Z - 150215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED NNW-SSE
THROUGH PARTS OF CNTRL IL WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION GENERATING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THIS ZONE WILL TEND TO ADVANCE INTO THE MODESTLY
COOLER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN THIS CONVECTION MAY OCCUR GIVEN
ASCENT RELATED TO A GLANCING/SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION PER WATER
VAPOR LOOPS. HOWEVER...AIR ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
FEATURES SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR MAINTAINED CONVECTION
AMIDST BACKED SFC WINDS. MODEST AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH ON ITS
COOLER SIDE...MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/MODEST DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILX RAOB...THE SVR RISK IS
PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   40808990 41128975 41008903 39698864 38758822 38528869
            38908924 39638960 40808990 

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