ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142102 
SPC MCD 142102 
TXZ000-OKZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK/WRN N TX AND
VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142102Z - 142230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN N TX AND ADJACENT SRN OK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CU
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AMA-PVW-LBB VICINITY...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A
DRYLINE AND A WEAK/REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LAID DOWN BY EARLIER
OK CONVECTION.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD IS ALSO NOTED SE
OF CDS...LIKELY INVOF THE OUTFLOW ITSELF.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S AND CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE LOW 90S ARE COMBINING WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH
MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES NOW INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.  

THOUGH NOT AS CONSISTENT IN EARLIER RUNS THIS MORNING...VARIOUS
VERSIONS OF HRRR OUTPUT ARE CONSISTENTLY -- FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS -- HINTING AT A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...AND WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
RESIDING ATOP THIS AREA /SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION/...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.  WHILE COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED...RISK MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WW CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35160116 35380070 35249835 34659721 33549675 32979742
            32969888 33120030 33470099 34170087 35160116 

NNNN