MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141730Z - 141900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
   WILL ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF
   THE NC-SC BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY RICHER MOISTURE
   POSITIONED TO THE W /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/ IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS...ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE
   CENTERED OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN
   THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F...AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500
   J/KG...TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG/S
   OF THE STALLING FRONT. MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT /I.E. AROUND 20 KT AT
   500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
   SVR DOWNBURST WINDS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WARM
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35228148 35107959 34897820 34267814 33797877 33717941
               33668038 33628114 33718213 34198265 34768311 34918300
               34938200 35228148