ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132143 
SPC MCD 132143 
TXZ000-NMZ000-140015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN...SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 132143Z - 140015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION SPREADING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH SVR POTENTIAL
WERE TO DEVELOP...WW ISSUANCE PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS IMPLY
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARISING FROM THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM -- WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
THAT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS...THOUGH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SPREADING EWD/SEWD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF W TX...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE MODIFYING/COOLER SIDE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED NW/SE THROUGH THE TX S PLAINS AND
VICINITY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MLCAPE OF
2000-4000 J/KG AMIDST 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR MAY FACILITATE A FEW
INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...IF UPSCALE
GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WERE TO YIELD A MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR RISK...WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATER.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32100225 32610374 34210406 34630267 33970162 32750099
            32100225 

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