ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132140 
SPC MCD 132140 
NDZ000-MTZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 132140Z - 132315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT INTO WRN ND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND WW ISSUANCE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST REASONING PROVIDED IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED MCD
895 FOR THIS REGION REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS WRN ND TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 21Z RAP
MESOANALYSIS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 
INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND. BROAD LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W
APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...LATEST SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE PARALLEL HRRR...SUGGEST A THREAT FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL
EXTEND INTO PARTS OF WRN ND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   46780398 46910577 46950752 49060701 49050449 49030203
            47040178 45980185 45970395 46780398 

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