MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/NRN WY...SERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131800Z - 131900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN/NRN WY AND SERN MT...WITH THREATS OF
   DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
   TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF ASCENT PRECEDING AN ERN GREAT BASIN VORT MAX
   IS OVERSPREADING CNTRL WY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. AN AXIS OF MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS IS
   CENTERED FROM SWRN SD INTO ERN MT TO THE E OF A SFC TROUGH LOCATED
   ROUGHLY FROM KBIL SWD TO NEAR KLAR. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
   TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER A
   HEATING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NRN/ERN
   WY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 1000-1500 J/KG
   PER RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS DATA. A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY MID-AFTERNOON...FEATURING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAKER...A TORNADO OR
   TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED
   SUPERCELL...PARTICULARLY INVOF MORE BACKED/SELY SFC WINDS ACROSS FAR
   SERN MT. 

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE HRS...AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE
   ACROSS ERN WY AND FAR SERN MT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45970521 43770413 41740407 41200480 41130605 43340602
               44760662 45240763 45690798 46110771 46010546 45970521