ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 131718 SPC MCD 131718 OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-131915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NERN NM AND VICINITY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131718Z - 131915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS ATTM...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOTED PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING REMNANTS OF AN ERODING LOW-CLOUD DECK E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OBS REVEALING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...CAPE REMAINS SUB-OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE RISK ATTM. WITH THAT SAID...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WRN CO/NWRN NM AS THE UPPER TROUGH -- CENTERED OVER UT/AZ -- ADVANCES. WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY YIELDING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SPREADING ENEWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BACKGROUND SHEAR -- THOUGH MODEST ATTM -- WILL ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW /40 TO 60 KT/ SPREADS ATOP PERSISTENT SELYS AT THE SURFACE. WHILE STORM MODE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ROTATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION -- ALONG WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALSO SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND RISK SPREADING ACROSS ERN CO TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE HIGH-PLAINS AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED CU FIELD EVOLUTION...WITH AN EYE TOWARD WW ISSUANCE ROUGHLY ANTICIPATED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/13/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 40420516 40860462 41220317 40770250 39010231 37030243 36210360 36580510 37550508 38550497 39950553 40420516 NNNN