ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130121 
SPC MCD 130121 
MNZ000-SDZ000-130245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN...NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248...

VALID 130121Z - 130245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY EXIST
FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248...A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH
OF FARGO ND WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE
MINNESOTA PORTION DURING PAST FEW HOURS...AND MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 248 HAVE BECOME ELEVATED.
THIS HAS LESSENED THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT
HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...INCREASING INHIBITION WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK TO ISOLATED AT BEST...AND THEREFORE A NEW
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44679659 44779759 45309721 45669632 45769602 45679551
            45509492 45459398 45049385 44739407 44509455 44439607
            44619642 44679659 

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