MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...FAR NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121903Z - 122030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE. PARTS OF SERN VA AND FAR NERN NC ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE VA TIDEWATER
   REGION INTO NERN NC...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 90S F
   OBSERVED. THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAKLY
   CONVERGENT COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS CNTRL VA...AND MLCAPE VALUES
   ARE ESTIMATED AT 1500-2000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A
   PRE-FRONTAL MID-LEVEL CU BAND MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE VA TIDEWATER.
   SFC-BASED CU HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND
   COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   E-CNTRL AND SERN VA.

   WITH THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED BY STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE INVERTED-V
   LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   DOWNBURST WINDS ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...12Z SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT VWP DATA
   BOTH SAMPLED 20-30 KT W-NWLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM AGL...AND DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THE
   HAIL THREAT MAY BE MORE LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES AND POOR LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT...BUT MAY STILL ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED STORM GIVEN
   30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR PRESENT.

   ..ROGERS/WEISS.. 06/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37897595 36907571 35957577 35817643 36057708 36447787
               36907833 37457883 37997900 38067770 37897595