ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120404 
SPC MCD 120404 
NDZ000-SDZ000-120600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN ND AND NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247...

VALID 120404Z - 120600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK IS DECREASING ACROSS WW 247.
HOWEVER...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
EXIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS PARTS
OF WRN/NRN ND. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS CONTINUE LATE THIS
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN ND AND NWRN SD...AND ARE SPREADING
GENERALLY NWD/NEWD. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING
TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ITS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME
MORE OF A W-TO-E COMPONENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE OF A ZONALLY
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FED BY
MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SE/S ACCOMPANYING AN LLJ SURMOUNTING AN
ANTECEDENT COOL AIR MASS. THE BIS/MBX VWPS INDICATE SELY/SLY FLOW
AROUND 30-45 KT FROM 1 TO 2 KM AGL WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE WARM-ADVECTION
PATTERN THAT MAY SUSTAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS --
PERHAPS WITH SLIGHT SEWD/SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LLJ. WITH THE 00Z
BIS RAOB SAMPLING AN H7-H5 LAPSE RATE OF 8.8 C/KM...ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
LIMITING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE CLUSTER-CONVECTION MODE...AND
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD SERVE AS FACTORS MITIGATING THE
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45710349 47880370 48820338 49030163 48939909 48269861
            47370032 45950119 45340230 45710349 

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