ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110603 
SPC MCD 110603 
NDZ000-110730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 110603Z - 110730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONFINED/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN ND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL RISK
SHOULD DIMINISH AND A NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER CENTERED OVER DAWSON COUNTY MT HAS HAD
A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...MOST RECENTLY A SPOTTER MEASURED
GUST OF 62 MPH AT 0535Z. THIS CLUSTER IS OCCURRING AROUND 100 MILES
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MT THAT ARCS EAST OF
A CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
IS MORE STABLE INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ND WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 8-15 DEG F COOLER COMPARED TO EAST-CENTRAL
MT. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS
IT SPREADS EAST INTO ND...A SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING SIMULATIONS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 06/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   47720389 47750312 47700225 47410171 46960178 46740212
            46640266 46720321 47050389 47720389 

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