ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102041 
SPC MCD 102041 
AZZ000-102215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/S-CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 102041Z - 102215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS TSTMS DEVELOP OVER SE AZ AND MOVE NWWD TOWARDS THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE AZ WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS ELY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS AREA OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY FLOW /SAMPLED WELL BY THE EMX VAD/ ATOP WLY
SURFACE FLOW IS SUPPORTING MODEST BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FROM 0-6 KM PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND EMX VAD/. THIS FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOME
MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES MAY RESULT. DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS IS
HIGH...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE NWWD TOWARDS THE PHOENIX AREA.

..MOSIER/WEISS.. 06/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31971142 32681236 33541260 34021191 34031098 33501033
            32920977 32300971 31921033 31971142 

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