MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE/S-CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102041Z - 102215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS AS TSTMS DEVELOP OVER SE AZ AND MOVE NWWD TOWARDS THE
   PHOENIX METRO AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE AZ WITH ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS ELY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS AREA OF
   SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY FLOW /SAMPLED WELL BY THE EMX VAD/ ATOP WLY
   SURFACE FLOW IS SUPPORTING MODEST BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
   FROM 0-6 KM PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND EMX VAD/. THIS FAVORABLE
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOME
   MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES MAY RESULT. DOWNDRAFT
   POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS IS
   HIGH...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE NWWD TOWARDS THE PHOENIX AREA.

   ..MOSIER/WEISS.. 06/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31971142 32681236 33541260 34021191 34031098 33501033
               32920977 32300971 31921033 31971142