ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101702 
SPC MCD 101702 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MN...NW WI...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 101702Z - 101830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN
EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS
LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A
COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH
STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW
ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   46158989 46999045 47289167 47189288 46309365 45209437
            44459533 43989600 43519614 43199597 43029566 42999482
            43599238 44279078 45238997 46158989 

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