ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092031 
SPC MCD 092031 
NDZ000-092300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 092031Z - 092300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE SVR
RISK...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF REMNANT CONVECTION IS SPREADING
TOWARD THE MT/ND BORDER AMIDST WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. SOME
INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT SHORTLY
ENTERING DIVIDE COUNTY ND. WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN ND HAVING
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FEATURING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED
SVR WIND/HAIL RISK MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE REGION...AND GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE SVR RISK MAY NOT INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL ONGOING CONVECTION IN CNTRL MT SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48800207 47370221 47090347 47180396 48220385 48830385
            49010301 48800207 

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