MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OREGON

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072022Z - 072245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR RISK WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS THAT
   ARE PRESENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OREGON. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL E OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
   TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC...COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS THUS FAR BEEN NEAR/E OF THE
   CREST OF THE CASCADES...AND FURTHER INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP INVERTED-VEE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES -- ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS --
   WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   SVR WIND GUSTS. WITH DCAPE ALREADY AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG...
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING. ISOLATED SVR
   HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION IN PROXIMITY
   TO THE CASCADES WHERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR IS PRESENT.

   HOWEVER...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY AOB 30
   KT...TSTM ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.
   FURTHERMORE...THE LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY OWING TO THE PAUCITY OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE OVERALL UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH. AS SUCH...ANY SVR RISK WILL BE MARGINAL/ISOLATED...AS
   CONVECTION SPREADS GENERALLY NEWD/EWD TOWARD/ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

   LAT...LON   42522186 43502165 44582077 45281886 45031773 44311763
               43211814 42491931 42292102 42522186