ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071956 
SPC MCD 071956 
MEZ000-NHZ000-072100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND S-CNTRL MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071956Z - 072100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED MARGINAL HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR AND WEST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND TO THE WEST OF A SEA BREEZE FRONT.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
APPEARS UNNECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR HAD SHOWN A PAIR OF
MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN AND S-CNTRL MAINE.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A SEA BREEZE FRONT IS MOVING
INLAND ACROSS SRN COASTAL MAINE AND AN ARCING OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM 25 MI SE AUG TO 40 MI N AUG. 
THE AIRMASS NEAR AND W OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE MARGINAL BUOYANCY
COUPLED WITH SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
HOWEVER...THE SMALL SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW FOR A STRONG/LOCALIZED
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

..SMITH/DIAL.. 06/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43647102 44747069 45126961 44406935 43367052 43647102 

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