ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 071937 SPC MCD 071937 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 071937Z - 072200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE INCREASING AGITATION TO CUMULUS FIELDS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE SWD TOWARD THE RATON MESA AREA AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH NRN NM. CG LIGHTNING IS INCREASING WITH THIS INCIPIENT CONVECTION...AND FURTHER INCREASES IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMID A DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION. THE AIR MASS OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG INSOLATION. DESPITE THE OVERALL PAUCITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES TO CROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE QUITE MODEST...THE PRESENCE OF 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD...WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...ALREADY AROUND 20-30F...WILL FACILITATE AMPLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...WILL TEND TO MARGINALIZE THE SVR POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/07/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 39120477 41000570 41380530 41270373 40660288 39760235 37910209 35830246 34640395 35170498 36890464 39120477 NNNN