MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071937Z - 072200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...THOUGH WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE INCREASING AGITATION
   TO CUMULUS FIELDS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT
   RANGE SWD TOWARD THE RATON MESA AREA AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
   MOUNTAINS THROUGH NRN NM. CG LIGHTNING IS INCREASING WITH THIS
   INCIPIENT CONVECTION...AND FURTHER INCREASES IN TSTM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
   THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS AMID A DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION.

   THE AIR MASS OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG
   INSOLATION. DESPITE THE OVERALL PAUCITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES TO CROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE
   QUITE MODEST...THE PRESENCE OF 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO SPREAD
   EWD/SEWD...WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. LARGE
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...ALREADY AROUND 20-30F...WILL
   FACILITATE AMPLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT
   ACCELERATIONS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
   HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...THE DEARTH OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...WILL TEND
   TO MARGINALIZE THE SVR POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   39120477 41000570 41380530 41270373 40660288 39760235
               37910209 35830246 34640395 35170498 36890464 39120477