MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062038Z - 062315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
   LIKELY...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...BANDS...AND CELLS WILL
   CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD/NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE
   LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR EMANATING FROM THE
   SERN FL PENINSULA -- SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S -- WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES AMIDST A BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION.
   AREA VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA FOR STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS AND PERHAPS A FEW
   BRIEF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN REMAINS DISPLACED TO
   THE W OF THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY / MINIMAL THETA-E DEFICITS. THIS
   CASTS DOUBT ON THE OVERALL SHORT-TERM TORNADO POTENTIAL...THOUGH
   CONVECTIVE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26228090 27178209 28238261 28948246 29368197 28898124
               28378076 27328029 26478018 26228090