ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061833 
SPC MCD 061833 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX
PANHANDLES...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061833Z - 062100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/SRN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF TOWERING
CUMULUS/DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST IN THE VICINITY OF
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN EAST-WEST SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AT 18Z...WITH GENERALLY WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

CONTINUED STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEAKLY BUOYANT AND
INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 750-1000 J/KG
RANGE. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND AND
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONGEALING OUTFLOWS WITH TIME
WILL RESULT IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36390494 37150550 38160560 38800555 39170522 39050463
            38940286 38940226 38990152 38490075 38020072 37400101
            36980139 36560185 36100280 35780433 36390494 

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