ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061730 
SPC MCD 061730 
FLZ000-062000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 061730Z - 062000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN THE OUTER ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL/SFC WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A CONFLUENCE
AXIS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INVOF THE WRN FL PENINSULA...AND
SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS
AXIS FROM E OF SARASOTA TO FORT MYERS TO OFF THE GULF COAST OF THE
SWRN FL PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRAIN INVOF
THE CONFLUENCE AXIS...WITH MATURING CELLS POTENTIALLY ROTATING AND
DRIFTING TO THE E OF N -- OWING TO FLANKING...DYNAMICALLY INDUCED
PERTURBATION PRESSURE GRADIENTS. ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IS SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER FL KEYS...AND WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND PERHAPS REACH THE SRN TIP OF THE FL
PENINSULA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADING WELL NE OF
TAMPA BAY...NEAR OCALA AND VICINITY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE.

THE AIR MASS OVER FL CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OWING TO POCKETS OF
FILTERED INSOLATION AMIDST THE BROADER CANOPY OF TRANSLUCENT
CLOUDINESS RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM COLIN. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S...AND TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S...HIGH THETA-E IN THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS
SUPPORTING ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR TSTM INTENSIFICATION. VWPS AT TBW
AND BYX INDICATE 20-35 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR WITH DEEP SLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THIS IS YIELDING AN OVERALL STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME TENDENCY FOR SFC
WINDS TO SUBTLY BACK OVER PARTS OF S FL...COINCIDENT WITH THE
INCREASING DEFINITION OF THE CONFLUENCE-AXIS-RELATED CONVECTION.
THIS MAY INDICATE THAT LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER SRH MAY BE
EVOLVING...PERHAPS AS A GENERAL MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
TROPICAL STORM COLIN. AS SUCH...THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE
INCREASING...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DMGG TSTM WIND GUSTS.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   24498188 25668189 27848218 28938236 29508227 29638175
            29358137 28308103 26488074 24838076 24498188 

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