MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
   MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061618Z - 061845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING TSTMS WITH DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
   MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL WI IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT
   MAX ORBITING AROUND THE SWRN RIM OF A DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER WRN
   QUEBEC. FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION OF THE VORT MAX TAKES IT ON A PATH
   REACHING NEAR DETROIT AROUND 20Z/21Z AND NEAR CLEVELAND OHIO AROUND
   22Z/23Z. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DCVA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION NEAR
   AND PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. DESPITE ONLY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AVAILABLE -- E.G. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S -- STEEPENING
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT RELATED TO
   THE DCVA WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR TSTM INTENSIFICATION
   THIS AFTERNOON. 

   UPSTREAM VWPS AT GRB AND MKX SAMPLE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH
   WLYS AT 30-45 KT THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LAYER. THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE SUPPORTING ELONGATED STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS...COMBINED WITH AMPLE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING
   CONVECTIVE VENTILATION...SUGGESTS THAT SPLITTING TSTMS AND
   FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RELATIVELY DRY THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WILL ENCOURAGE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO ACCELERATE
   DOWNDRAFTS AND CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...FACILITATING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
   GIVEN COOLING PROFILES ALOFT AND ANTICIPATED SPLITTING TSTMS. THERE
   IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE MORE ROBUST INCREASE
   IN SVR POTENTIAL WHICH EXTENDS TO POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...THOUGH THE
   SVR RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41918563 42188665 42988734 43738706 43888646 43928554
               43958380 44008281 42748269 41938351 41918563