ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060825 
SPC MCD 060825 
FLZ000-061030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN FL GULF COASTAL AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 060825Z - 061030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RISK FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS EVIDENT OFFSHORE AND
EXTENDING SLIGHTLY INLAND NEAR AND S OF THE TAMPA AREA.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO REVEAL SMALL/WEAK
CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT HAVE EXHIBITED SOME DEGREE OF LONGEVITY -- AND
ASSOCIATED/WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- MAINLY OFF THE FL COAST W OF
THE FMY /FORT MYERS/ VICINITY.  TAMPA VWP AS WELL AS THE 06Z TBW
RAOB INDICATE AMPLE VEERING/SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER TO SUPPORT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  HOWEVER...THE RAOB ALSO REVEALS
A SHALLOW/WEAKLY THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER AS
WELL...WITH CELLS GENERALLY DECAYING RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVE INLAND
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONFIRMING THE THERMODYNAMIC CONCERNS
INLAND.

WITH THAT SAID...A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS WITH SWD
EXTENT ALONG THE COAST...AND GIVEN THE SSELY SURFACE FLOW SOME
ADVECTION OF THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD COULD RESULT IN A SMALL
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR A CELL OR TWO TO SURVIVE INLAND. 
THEREFORE...A SUBTLE/GRADUAL UPTICK IN BRIEF TORNADO RISK MAY OCCUR
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ATTM EXPECT ANY
RISK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS SUPPORTIVE OF WW CONSIDERATION
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   26258155 25768170 26338233 27188276 27638278 27668242
            27068186 26258155 

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