ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041949 
SPC MCD 041949 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY...SRN OH AND WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 041949Z - 042145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS...A
WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN AND NERN KY IS
MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. THESE STORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED
AND ARE MOVING INTO A REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT YET BEEN
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...BUT WITH MLCAPE ONLY AROUND 1500 J/KG DUE
TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VWP DATA ACROSS NERN KY AND SRN OH
SHOW 30-35 KT 0-6 KM KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELLS...BUT
WITH SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER SRN OH WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO A SSELY
DIRECTION. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AT LEAST A MODEST RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS MODEST
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 06/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   39518106 38958137 37908219 37848324 38688419 39438369
            39898211 39518106 

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