MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031828Z - 032100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM N-CNTRL ND SEWD THROUGH ERN SD. ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND COULD OCCUR...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF INSOLATION BETWEEN THE WRN EDGE OF A
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING FROM NERN ND TO MUCH OF MN...AND
   THE CORE OF MORE CONTINENTAL AIR SUBJECTED TO DOWNSLOPE
   WARMING/DRYING...IS YIELDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR FROM N-CNTRL ND SEWD THROUGH ERN SD. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING
   IN THE 50S IN THIS CORRIDOR...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 70S IN MANY AREAS ARE SUPPORTING EROSION OF MLCINH
   BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT -- E.G. AROUND -15C AT H5. AS
   SUCH...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF
   CONVECTION ALREADY EVOLVING FROM S-CNTRL ND TO N-CNTRL SD.

   RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING-LEVEL HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
   ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED TSTMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND
   GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTION INTERCEPTS POCKETS OF
   DEEPER AMBIENT VERTICAL MIXING. LOW-LEVEL STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS
   COULD OCCUR OWING TO THE OVERLAP OF AMBIENT NEAR-SFC VERTICAL
   VORTICITY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE
   PROMINENT SFC BOUNDARY AND RELATED VORTICITY DISPLACED TO THE E OF
   GREATER INSOLATION...THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE LIMITED.
   WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
   OVERALL...KEEPING THE SVR RISK QUITE ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   43979663 43529744 43929852 45350005 47110106 48250146
               48810066 48579925 46779767 45089666 43979663