ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301916 
SPC MCD 301916 
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...CNTRL SD...N-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 301916Z - 302015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NW OF BIS WITH
THE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO SW SD AND THEN WWD ACROSS CNTRL WY. AN
ADDITIONAL LOW EXISTS ACROSS SW SD WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE
ARCING FROM IT INTO N-CNTRL NEB AND THEN BACK SWWD INTO NE CO.
TEMPERATURES IN AREA AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MORE AS HEATING CONTINUES. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
TAKING PLACE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY MIXING...LIKELY
YIELDING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THIS MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J PER
KG. 

STRONGEST LARGE SCALED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO NEB WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO CINH...AND
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF TSTMS FROM
CNTRL ND SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB. SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT COLD POOL AMALGAMATION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE. FORWARD
SPEED OF THE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN UPDRAFT UNDERCUTTING.
EVEN SO...THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE A WATCH.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   46240087 47329994 47539824 47389749 46639734 44359802
            42919878 41690021 41720230 43980174 46240087 

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