MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292156Z - 292330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
   2-3 HOURS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AT
   THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF
   THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD INTO AN AREA THAT
   WAS PREVIOUSLY MODIFIED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING
   AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE IN THE
   1500-3000 J/KG RANGE. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
   LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...THOUGH MODESTLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
   AND MODERATE ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   MODE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
   DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
   THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. AT THIS TIME...THE
   COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33289787 33399731 33239624 32769474 32069508 31989585
               32079687 32189767 32269791 32929797 33289787