ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 291942 SPC MCD 291942 TXZ000-NMZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291942Z - 292145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ALSO NEAR PECOS COUNTY. WITH A SEVERE THREAT ON THE INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...CONTINUED INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN WEAKENING INHIBITION AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY /AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND 40-50 KNOTS OF WESTERLY DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT WEAK AT THE CURRENT TIME...OWING TO FLOW LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 5 KM ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WOULD TEND TO FOSTER OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS THAT WILL POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /I.E. RELATIVELY EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE/. WITH TIME...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MATURE AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...POSSIBLY ENCOUNTERING BOTH RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA/ AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES /ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z/. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN STAY DISCRETE/ AND A THREAT OF HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE. ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 29770150 29830194 29870241 29750273 29620288 29650337 29970384 30630428 31370460 31960464 32410487 33030452 33480360 33600256 33610142 33430089 32700063 32320056 31440046 30620049 30070092 29770150 NNNN