MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LWR MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT NERN IND/NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291834Z - 292030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
   LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEED FOR A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS IS IN THE PROCESS OF
   INITIATING ALONG AN APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...NORTHEAST
   OF FORT WAYNE THROUGH THE MICHIGAN THUMB AREA.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG...INHIBITION FOR A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE.  THE DEGREE OF UNSATURATION WITHIN
   THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE EVIDENT IN THE 18Z RAOB FROM DETROIT COULD
   INITIALLY SLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
   MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   SCATTERED INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-22Z.

   SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT A  BELT
   OF 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY SUPPORT
   LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE DETROIT
   METROPOLITAN AREA...AS DOWNDRAFTS INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   UNTIL THEN...STRONGER INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK
   FOR HAIL THAT COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43408397 44008295 43158262 41618387 41408458 41718490
               42658441 43408397