ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 291748 SPC MCD 291748 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-291945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291748Z - 291945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR TCC...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR BPC. HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INCREASING CUMULONIMBUS ELSEWHERE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE TIED TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE AREA...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRENGTHENING CONVECTION INCLUDING... 1/ STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION AND... 2/ STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO 9-9.5C H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH 50-60 KNOT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VENTING ALOFT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME UNDERCUT AS A COLD POOL CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE AREA DUE TO EARLIER ELEVATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE INITIATION OF THIS CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES INDICATED IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. STORMS MAY CONGEAL WITH TIME AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE. ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33460321 33560356 34030389 34760403 35420385 36000334 36630277 36790213 36850142 36630093 36120060 35690064 35090054 34180083 33830172 33460321 NNNN