ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291252 
SPC MCD 291252 
OKZ000-TXZ000-291515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 291252Z - 291515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL /APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS THIS
MORNING FROM THE NORTHERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST TO
CENTRAL OK.  THE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND TO NORTHWEST OK.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ELEVATED AND ROOTED AROUND 700-850 MB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MO THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST KS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN OK TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE.  THE ONGOING
STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WITHIN THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE LLJ
VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.  THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 9 C/KM AT AMA 12Z SOUNDING/ WILL
SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  MODEST BULK SHEAR /25-30 KT/
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE-STORM THREAT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36350163 36710031 36399833 35959733 35169718 34569781
            34629929 34580008 34920079 35200143 35520189 36350163 

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