|
Mesoscale Discussion 744 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261943Z - 262145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND SOME CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY
IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TIME...THE HIGHER BASED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE DRYLINE INTO A
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS AND 1500-3000
J/KG MLCAPE. ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
THIS REGION AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY...40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH EVENING...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33329897 33389927 33460016 32990063 32120112 31160191
30530232 29980224 29710147 30019982 31879900 32659877
33159882 33329897
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|