ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261850 SPC MCD 261850 TXZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261850Z - 262045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR CLL...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND A WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY EASTWARD-MOVING MCS JUST EAST OF COLLEGE STATION. CONVECTION WITHIN THIS MCS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY. REDEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN EARNEST ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL FROM NEAR CLL TO NEAR GTU. ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM NEAR HYI HAS INCREASED AND MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WITH TIME...HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO WESTERLY ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LCL/S. ..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30449825 31069734 31589638 31849558 31779473 31289436 30649430 29869522 29359670 29089746 29079812 29469854 29969858 30449825 NNNN