ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252040 
SPC MCD 252040 
TXZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 252040Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF SWRN TX EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE EAST OF DRYLINE
FROM SWRN THROUGH NWRN TX WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING NORTH OF
HIGH CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW REGIME HAS
BOOSTED SFC TEMPERATURES TO 90F. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE
REMAINS LIMITED...INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED.
INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG DRYLINE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...HIGH
BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SPREAD EWD AND
INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL
WIND/SHEAR PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30160173 31150070 32019992 32159933 31659891 30519914
            28960030 29550109 30160173 

NNNN