ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250202 
SPC MCD 250202 
SDZ000-NEZ000-250300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...NWRN AND N-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 250202Z - 250300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR THE NEXT
2-3 HRS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEB. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
PER RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...WITH A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT S OF THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN CONGEALING INTO A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE LINE INTO NWRN NEB. THE 25/00Z SOUNDING FROM
ABR AND LBF SAMPLED VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT MEAGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM
AGL. THESE LIMITING FACTORS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT...BUT THE NRN FRINGE OF A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ IMPINGING INTO THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44479918 43069969 42490015 42240080 42160180 42180246
            42440285 43690236 44510138 44810015 44479918 

NNNN