ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242034 
SPC MCD 242034 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...

VALID 242034Z - 242200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD WITH
THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...KFTG RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SUPERCELL TSTMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DENVER METRO WITH MRMS MESH RECENTLY ESTIMATING
HAIL SIZE APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...AND SELY WINDS
AROUND 15 KT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000
J PER KG. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS A BIT FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS NE CO/ WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE CLOSER
TO 1500 J PER KG. 

IN ADDITION TO THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE.
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED SHEAR AND CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. 

GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING
A FEW TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39450489 40930489 41200225 39750224 39450489 

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