ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241931 
SPC MCD 241931 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 241931Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTON
COUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST
OK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEAR
THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.

VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AS
SAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37010082 37540108 38180176 38540171 38620121 38480037
            38259977 37269911 36479911 35149970 34300046 34220106
            34480137 36020087 37010082 

NNNN