ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241825 
SPC MCD 241825 
OKZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241825Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS BORDER DOWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OK AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST KS. A TRIO OF CELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AMID A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG...THESE CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER /AS
SIMULATED BY THE 17Z NCEP-PARALLEL-HRRR/. WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA
DEPICTING INDICATIONS OF VEER-BACK WINDS FROM 0-3 KM AGL AND STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...HODOGRAPH SHAPE APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36629851 36899692 36919642 36659613 36199611 35859676
            35699745 35809821 36029861 36299876 36629851 

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