ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 240451 
SPC MCD 240451 
KSZ000-240645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 240451Z - 240645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO
AN MCS.  GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
KS/NEB BORDER...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A WIND SHIFT THROUGH TREGO
AND GOVE COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUD-TOP COOLING WITH THESE STORMS AND ATTENDANT TO CU/MODERATE CU
FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY KS TO KIOWA COUNTY CO.
THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ATTENDANT TO AN INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS.  THIS JET WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
1500-3000 J PER KG/...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
SUPPORTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS.  LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  

00Z NSSL-WRF 4 KM/03Z ESRL-HRRR AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR HAVE INDICATED A SCENARIO FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AND/OR WESTERN KS...WITH
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS INTO CENTRAL KS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38830127 39779943 39889778 38709689 37509673 37169774
            37399956 38200125 38830127 

NNNN