ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 240422 SPC MCD 240422 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 240422Z - 240545Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...NEW TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND NEAR THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... THOUGH SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN TIME OF DAY AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. A NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHWEST OK... WESTERN NORTH TX...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. FARTHER NORTH...STORMS NEAR THE NORTHWEST OK/KS BORDER SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING AS WELL. DISCUSSION...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST TX...RESULTING IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE PER AREA VWPS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LLJ AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF RESIDUAL MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THIS COMPLEX. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT HAS LIKELY GREATLY DIMINISHED GIVEN TIME OF DAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...THE LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F MAY ALLOW FOR A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34380090 35010129 35890099 37090017 37349974 36519913 35389867 34539848 34109855 33859905 34029969 34380090 NNNN