ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231930 
SPC MCD 231930 
NEZ000-KSZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231930Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS UNCERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IF STORMS MATERIALIZE.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED
2000 J/KG.  A WEAK BOUNDARY SEPARATES THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FROM WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK...AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION AS A RESULT.  GIVEN
SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /40-45 KNOTS/ AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A SEVERE WIND
GUST ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN
MATERIALIZE THROUGH SUNSET.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41789765 41649797 41159889 40349980 39570046 39180026
            39099973 39139882 39229837 39329793 39969730 40469698
            41119690 41669711 41799726 41789765 

NNNN