ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231918 
SPC MCD 231918 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS...EAST TX/OK PANHANDLES...WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 231918Z - 232115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND NEAR A LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD ALSO FOSTER A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB SURFACE NEAR THE
OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE ARCING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH THE NORTH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SURGING
WEST. INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
AND LINGERING MLCIN SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AIR
MASS BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW ACROSS WEST OK AND THE EAST TX
PANHANDLE IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG GIVEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MODEST AT
PRESENT...BACKED SURFACE WINDS /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/ AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD FAVOR A COUPLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AS WELL.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37040082 37240102 37510118 38010114 38240059 38209986
            37689929 37219890 36529822 36209811 36039830 35709899
            35259959 34369984 33970022 34060076 34360116 35040089
            35940042 36740032 37040082 

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