ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231832 
SPC MCD 231832 
TXZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 231832Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE DRYLINE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT
A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL HIGH-BASED CB DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVER
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY WITH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ALSO EVIDENT
INTO PECOS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATION
THROUGH 20Z. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO MINIMAL DRYLINE CU AT THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG AMID VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY INITIALLY TEMPER THE TORNADO RISK...BUT
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TOWARDS EVENING...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL IS
ANTICIPATED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32940199 33570201 33800138 33540070 33020045 32180045
            30920105 29910178 29710252 30040298 30830274 31630206
            32510201 32940199 

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